A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
